Revisiting the NHL Lockout’s Impact on Minor-League Hockey Attendance
Monday, April 22nd, 2013Several months back, I wondered what effect the NHL lockout was having on attendance at games in the American Hockey League, whose 30 teams are all affiliates of NHL clubs. Now that the AHL season has ended, we can look at how all 78 minor-league clubs fared at the gate from the time the lockout ended until this past weekend.
You’ll see four columns for each team in the table below. The first is each club’s average home announced attendance as of the last day of the lockout (through games of January 18, 2013). Next is the average home announced attendance for all games from that point until the end of each team’s season. Then there’s the team’s final average announced attendance for the entire season. Finally, the percentage in the fourth column is the difference between the average for games during the lockout and for games after the lockout. Teams are ranked here by how big a “hit” they took (how much their average dropped) when the NHL returned to play. A positive number, obviously, indicates an increase in attendance post-lockout.
| Team | Lg | During | Post | Final | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton Bulldogs | AHL | 6,168 | 4,742 | 5,342 | -23.12% |
| San Francisco Bulls | ECHL | 4,635 | 3,577 | 4,164 | -22.83% |
| Elmira Jackals | ECHL | 2,699 | 2,168 | 2,478 | -19.67% |
| Williamsport Outlaws | FHL | 1,076 | 867 | 1,069 | -19.42% |
| Rochester Americans | AHL | 6,770 | 5,750 | 6,314 | -15.07% |
| Bridgeport Sound Tigers | AHL | 5,681 | 5,023 | 5,300 | -11.58% |
| 1000 Islands Privateers | FHL | 921 | 815 | 880 | -11.46% |
| Toronto Marlies | AHL | 7,138 | 6,348 | 6,681 | -11.07% |
| Abbotsford Heat | AHL | 3,917 | 3,587 | 3,778 | -8.42% |
| Danbury Whalers | FHL | 1,944 | 1,853 | 1,907 | -4.70% |
| Allen Americans | CHL | 4,254 | 4,066 | 4,157 | -4.43% |
| Denver Cutthroats | CHL | 3,025 | 2,913 | 2,981 | -3.71% |
| Alaska Aces | ECHL | 4,831 | 4,715 | 4,783 | -2.40% |
| Bloomington Blaze | CHL | 2,522 | 2,516 | 2,520 | -0.24% |
| Colorado Eagles | ECHL | 5,289 | 5,289 | 5,289 | 0.00% |
| St. John’s IceCaps | AHL | 6,287 | 6,287 | 6,287 | 0.00% |
| Rapid City Rush | CHL | 4,661 | 4,663 | 4,662 | 0.05% |
| Binghamton Senators | AHL | 3,547 | 3,573 | 3,559 | 0.74% |
| Missouri Mavericks | CHL | 5,461 | 5,588 | 5,523 | 2.32% |
| Dayton Demonz | FHL | 1,136 | 1,163 | 1,146 | 2.39% |
| Tulsa Oilers | CHL | 4,114 | 4,223 | 4,167 | 2.64% |
| Syracuse Crunch | AHL | 5,309 | 5,464 | 5,399 | 2.93% |
| Augusta River Hawks | SPHL | 1,811 | 1,864 | 1,830 | 2.94% |
| Norfolk Admirals | AHL | 5,325 | 5,578 | 5,451 | 4.74% |
| Oklahoma City Barons | AHL | 3,453 | 3,619 | 3,527 | 4.80% |
| Houston Aeros | AHL | 6,656 | 6,981 | 6,793 | 4.88% |
| Orlando Solar Bears | ECHL | 6,477 | 6,821 | 6,668 | 5.31% |
| Albany Devils | AHL | 3,755 | 3,956 | 3,860 | 5.34% |
| Idaho Steelheads | ECHL | 3,884 | 4,102 | 3,987 | 5.61% |
| Utah Grizzlies | ECHL | 4,492 | 4,768 | 4,622 | 6.14% |
| Fort Wayne Komets | ECHL | 7,402 | 7,867 | 7,583 | 6.28% |
| Wheeling Nailers | ECHL | 2,423 | 2,590 | 2,488 | 6.88% |
| Knoxville Ice Bears | SPHL | 3,320 | 3,577 | 3,449 | 7.75% |
| Peoria Rivermen | AHL | 4,781 | 5,187 | 5,027 | 8.50% |
| Springfield Falcons | AHL | 3,707 | 4,105 | 3,906 | 10.75% |
| Toledo Walleye | ECHL | 5,975 | 6,622 | 6,298 | 10.83% |
| Lake Erie Monsters | AHL | 7,243 | 8,033 | 7,680 | 10.91% |
| Florida Everblades | ECHL | 4,829 | 5,372 | 5,116 | 11.24% |
| Ontario Reign | ECHL | 7,209 | 8,033 | 7,575 | 11.43% |
| Las Vegas Wranglers | ECHL | 4,326 | 4,824 | 4,561 | 11.51% |
| Bakersfield Condors | ECHL | 4,400 | 4,923 | 4,618 | 11.89% |
| Texas Stars | AHL | 4,866 | 5,456 | 5,146 | 12.12% |
| Rockford IceHogs | AHL | 4,309 | 4,839 | 4,560 | 12.30% |
| Kalamazoo Wings | ECHL | 3,068 | 3,483 | 3,252 | 13.53% |
| Arizona Sundogs | CHL | 2,467 | 2,820 | 2,617 | 14.33% |
| Hershey Bears | AHL | 9,503 | 10,879 | 10,046 | 14.48% |
| Stockton Thunder | ECHL | 5,049 | 5,921 | 5,485 | 17.27% |
| Gwinnett Gladiators | ECHL | 5,022 | 5,901 | 5,437 | 17.51% |
| Mississippi Surge | SPHL | 1,900 | 2,253 | 2,089 | 18.58% |
| Fayetteville FireAntz | SPHL | 3,175 | 3,792 | 3,440 | 19.42% |
| Adirondack Phantoms | AHL | 3,611 | 4,328 | 3,988 | 19.85% |
| W-B/Scranton Penguins | AHL | 5,527 | 6,670 | 6,038 | 20.68% |
| Mississippi RiverKings | SPHL | 2,305 | 2,791 | 2,513 | 21.08% |
| Trenton Titans | ECHL | 3,054 | 3,702 | 3,360 | 21.23% |
| Fort Worth Brahmas | CHL | 1,636 | 1,983 | 1,763 | 21.24% |
| Pensacola Ice Flyers | SPHL | 2,911 | 3,572 | 3,289 | 22.71% |
| Portland Pirates | AHL | 3,949 | 4,891 | 4,444 | 23.84% |
| Providence Bruins | AHL | 7,340 | 9,129 | 8,188 | 24.37% |
| Worcester Sharks | AHL | 3,857 | 4,838 | 4,374 | 25.45% |
| Reading Royals | ECHL | 3,571 | 4,529 | 4,023 | 26.83% |
| Huntsville Havoc | SPHL | 3,089 | 3,939 | 3,514 | 27.52% |
| Grand Rapids Griffins | AHL | 6,763 | 8,804 | 7,676 | 30.18% |
| Evansville IceMen | ECHL | 4,909 | 6,426 | 5,415 | 30.91% |
| Louisiana IceGators | SPHL | 2,058 | 2,702 | 2,289 | 31.31% |
| Chicago Wolves | AHL | 7,091 | 9,369 | 8,230 | 32.12% |
| Cincinnati Cyclones | ECHL | 3,905 | 5,206 | 4,447 | 33.31% |
| Connecticut Whale | AHL | 3,850 | 5,160 | 4,540 | 34.03% |
| Danville Dashers | FHL | 499 | 678 | 566 | 35.81% |
| Manchester Monarchs | AHL | 4,952 | 6,742 | 5,706 | 36.15% |
| Charlotte Checkers | AHL | 5,730 | 7,832 | 6,781 | 36.69% |
| San Antonio Rampage | AHL | 6,067 | 8,303 | 7,067 | 36.85% |
| Wichita Thunder | CHL | 4,795 | 6,690 | 5,599 | 39.52% |
| South Carolina Stingrays | ECHL | 2,947 | 4,176 | 3,528 | 41.71% |
| Quad City Mallards | CHL | 2,529 | 3,666 | 3,080 | 44.95% |
| Columbus Cottonmoutsh | SPHL | 2,307 | 3,529 | 2,831 | 52.97% |
| Greenville Road Warriors | ECHL | 3,061 | 4,693 | 3,605 | 53.32% |
| Milwaukee Admirals | AHL | 4,250 | 6,736 | 5,624 | 58.49% |
| New York Bluefins | FHL | 424 | N/A | 424 | N/A |
| League | FHL | 1,054 | 1,131 | 1,078 | 7.29% |
| League | AHL | 5,411 | 6,013 | 5,710 | 11.12% |
| League | ECHL | 4,471 | 5,052 | 4,730 | 12.99% |
| League | CHL | 3,490 | 3,983 | 3,707 | 14.13% |
| League | SPHL | 2,508 | 3,158 | 2,805 | 25.92% |
Sixty-one of the seventy-eight minor-league hockey teams saw an increase in their average announced attendance once the NHL lockout was over, ranging from the negligible (Rapid City, two people per game) to the profound (Columbus, Greenville and Milwaukee, all up more than 50%). Every league was also up, from the seven percent of the Federal League to the 26 percent of the SPHL.
Some individual markets saw steep declines, including Hamilton (did the return of the Leafs, and their first trip to the playoffs in nine years, make an impact there?), San Francisco (with the Sharks in nearby San Jose), Elmira and Rochester (both near Buffalo) and Bridgeport (the closest minor-league market to New York) all off by 12 to 23 percent.
I wouldn’t attribute all of this to the return of the NHL, and different markets may react very differently. There could be any number of reasons above and beyond the idea that hockey fans felt better about the game once the lockout was over and wanted to consume it at whatever level was closest to them. But you can’t prove from these numbers that the absence of the NHL was better for the minor-league hockey business.


